Tungsten Prices 2026: China Quotas Spark Supply Supercycle
The Tungsten Surge in 2026
Tungsten is stepping into its own supercycle in 2026, similar to the ongoing trends in gold and silver, which are benefiting from geopolitical factors and demand as safe-haven assets. Prices for tungsten concentrates, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and powder have increased up to 110 percent from the year's start, pushing towards record highs. This surge is fueled by Chinese export restrictions, decreasing ore qualities, and a boom in high-tech demand.
Price Recovery Escalates into a Rally: +500% Over the Year
Over the past year, tungsten prices have seen an extraordinary reversal. Currently, concentrates are valued at around 22,000–24,000 USD per metric ton unit (MTU) of tungsten trioxide, APT prices have surpassed 450 USD, and powder is around 55,000 USD per ton—over a 500 percent increase since the lows of 2024. Analysts observe that tungsten rises effortlessly, yet rarely falls, due to a persistent supply deficit.
China, the global leader in tungsten with 80 percent of production, decreased quotas by 6.5 percent in 2025, introduced stricter export limits, and increased recycling quotas amid declining ore grades. CICC predicts a worldwide shortfall of 20,000 MTU by 2028 as demand spikes from sectors like defense, semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and AI data center development.
Geopolitical Tensions Heighten Demand: Iran Conflict Plays a Role
Tensions in the Middle East, marked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, are boosting tungsten's stature as a 'NATO metal,' supporting its prices along with gold. Tungsten's essential role in military applications, such as tank barrels and missile production, ties its value directly to defense expenditure. Reports from March 1 mention rising prices in Shanghai, while Western strategists enhance their reserves.
The US categorizes tungsten as a 'critical defense material,' prompting Europe to seek alternatives to reliance on Chinese supplies. Market projections anticipate growth to 177 kilotons by 2031 at a 4.65% CAGR, yet the supply gap persists.
Western Initiatives: Almonty and Others Lead the Way
Both demand surges and supply shortfalls contribute to tungsten's 2026 appeal. Almonty Industries is expanding its South Korean Sangdong mine, with Phase 1 operational and Phase 2 expected to produce over 460,000 MTU/year, marking it as the largest tungsten endeavor outside China. Almonty also plans the US debut of 'Gentung Browns Lake' in late 2026, introducing the first commercial US tungsten mine in decades with a 219 million USD investment.
Meanwhile, American Tungsten boosts its portfolio through investments like Viking Mines. Pure Tungsten, noted for its promising high-grade deposits, emerges as a potential global supplier reinforcing Western supply assurance.
Tungsten Price Trajectory (USD/MTU, March 2026)
- Concentrate (62.5% WO3): 2024 Low: 9,000, 2025 Average: 16,000, March 2026: 23,500
- APT (88.5% WO3): 220, 320, 450
- Powder: 28,000, 42,000, 55,000
Outlook: Supercycle with Continued Growth Potential
In 2026, tungsten's risk-reward balance remains appealing as structural shortages align with booms in technology and defense. Possible further reductions in Chinese exports or intensified geopolitical tensions could elevate concentrate prices to 30,000 USD/MTU. Meanwhile, competitive recycling efforts are underway, with the strong US dollar posing potential challenges.
